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RAS Earth ScienceЛёд и Снег Ice and Snow

  • ISSN (Print) 2076-6734
  • ISSN (Online) 2412-3765

Multiyear Variability of Aufeis Area in the Selenga River Basin and Its Determining Hydrometeorological Factors

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PII
S24123765S2076673425020114-1
DOI
10.7868/S2412376525020114
Publication type
Article
Status
Published
Authors
E. Zh. Garmaev
  • Affiliation: Baikal Institute of Nature Management of the Siberian Branch of RAS
V. N. Chernykh
  • Affiliation: Baikal Institute of Nature Management of the Siberian Branch of RAS
S. V. Pyankov
  • Affiliation: Perm State University
A. N. Shikhov
  • Affiliation:
    Perm State University
    Kazan Federal University
A. A. Ayurzhanaev
  • Affiliation: Baikal Institute of Nature Management of the Siberian Branch of RAS
D. A. Bogatyrev
  • Affiliation: Perm State University
Volume/ Edition
Volume 65 / Issue number 2
Pages
342-356
Abstract
Aufels are widespread in the permafrost zone, including the Selenga River basin. They are considered as indicators of dynamic groundwater reserves and often cause damage to settlements and infrastructure. In this study, a representative set of aufels in the Selenga River basin was compiled based on a previously developed GIS dataset. Landsat and Sentinel-2 satellite images for 1990-2024, acquired immediately after snowmelt, were used to estimate the aufels area and its multi-year changes. Changes in aufels area were compared with meteorological parameters derived from the weather station data and ERA5 reanalysis. We found that the average aufels area decreases by 3.5% per 10 years. At the same time, interannual variations of the area of individual aufels are generally poorly correlated. The aufels area has a negative correlation with air temperature in December, March and April, as cold weather in these months favours increase of ice-covered area. A significant increase in air temperature in April in recent decades may be one of the reasons for the overall decrease in the aufels area. A correlation has also been found with the amount of precipitation in the previous year and particularly in the period from June to September. The largest aufels area has been observed in 1995-1996, after 1993-1994 which was the wettest year of the period. The lowest aufels area corresponds to the driest years 2014-2016. On average, the meteorological variables explain 52% of the interannual variability of the aufels area, but for individual aufels this value ranges from 7 to 63%. Such differences are due to the different origin of the considered aufels and possible changes in the hydrogeological conditions, the identification of which requires field studies.
Keywords
наледи многолетние изменения спутниковые снимки Landsat и Sentinel-2 реанализ ERA5 осадки температура воздуха расход воды корреляции
Date of publication
18.04.2025
Year of publication
2025
Number of purchasers
0
Views
10

References

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